第二节 自然灾害对粮食安全的影响.doc

第二节 自然灾害对粮食安全的影响 粮食产量不仅与一国的耕地面积农业劳动人口农业科技水平等因素相关与一国的自然有着密切的关系。因此研究自然灾害对粮食的影响Chapter two The influence of the natural calamities on food security Grain production is not only related to these factors, such as the arable land area of a nation, the population of farming, the level of agricultural mechanization and technology, but also have a close relationship with natural calamities. Since ancient times, the natural calamities in China are varied with high frequency, covering large areas, and easy to be seriously affected by them. Therefore, we need to make appropriate grain security policies by investigating the effects to the grain production caused by natural disasters. In this chapter, the data we will utilize fall into two categories: one is the micro data concerning the grain production behaviors of farmers based on our survey between 2004 and 2008, and the other grounds on the data of yearbook related to the natural calamities and the grain output in China. 1．农户受灾情况分析 我们在对农户种粮行为进行问卷调查时，询问了2004～2008年经历灾情的农户受灾及减产情况，收到有效问卷1619份。表13-1显示，2004～2008年受灾农户占调查农户的百分比相当稳定，除一年为20.07%外，其余均为22%稍高。受灾农户平均减产15%～21%，平均为17.27%，且有相当的稳定性，没有趋势性变化。 An analysis on farmers’ disaster situation During the questionnaire survey concerning the production behaviors of farmers’, we enquired those suffered the disasters between 2004 and 2008 about their production situation, and got 1619 valid questionnaires. Table 13-1 shows that the farmers affected had a quite stable proportion in the survey during that period, except one year 20.07%, the others being 22% or more. The affected farmers’ crops got a production by 15%~21%, and 17.2 7% on average, and this situation was stable, having no changes in tendency. Table 13-1: The Affected Farmers’ Situation Year Affected farmers Percentage they occupied in our survey Their average reduction percentage 表13-1 受灾农户情况 年份 受灾农户 受灾农户占总调查户数百分比（%） 受灾农户平均 减产百分比（%） 2004 366 22．61 16.36 2005 325 20．07 16.05 2006 360 22．24 15.80 2007 371 22．92