基于神经网络的郑州市水资源可持续利用综合评价.pdf

中国农村水利水电# 2008 年第12 期 55 : 1007-2284( 2008) 12-0055- 03 基于神经网络的 郑州市水资源可持续利用综合评价 刘增进, 张 敏, 王振雨, 李晓瑜 ( , 450011) : 从社会经济系统生态环境系统和水资源系统3 个层次 16 个指标 人工神经网络对郑州市水资源可持续 利 状况进行综合评价结果表明: 1994- 2005 年, 郑州市水资源可持续利 评价结果分别为0.430. 390.420.4 1 0.480. 50. 550. 650. 590. 63, 整体上呈较快上升趋势, 但其仍然处在可持续利 困难到基本可持续利 阶段; 未来 规划水平年(201020152020 年) 水资源可持续评价结果分别为0. 680.720.75, 均处于可持续发展阶段通过敏感性 分析得出影响郑州市水资源可持续利 的敏感性要素为: 水资源开发利 率单方水粮食产量平均灌溉水利 系数 提高水资源开发利 率单方水粮食产量平均灌溉水利 系数人均GDP中水回 率是改善郑州市城市水资源可持 续利 状况的重要举措 : 城市水资源; 可持续利 ;指标体系; BP; 郑州市 :T V213. 9 :A A ComprehensiveAssessment of theSustainableUtilizationof WaterResourcesinZhengzhouCity BasedontheANNEvaluation ethod LIUZeng-jin,ZHANG in,WANGZhen-yu, LIXiao-yu ( North Chi a I stitute of Water Co serva cy a d Hydroelectric Power, Zhe gzhou 450011, Chi a) Abstract: By usi g BP model of ANN, sustai able utilizatio of wat er resources i Zhe gzhou Cit y is comprehe sivly evaluat ed based o 16 i dicators at 3 levels such as the socio-eco omic syst em, the eco-e viro me tal system a d the water resources system. The re- sults show that from 1994 to 2005, Zhe gzhous comprehe sive i dices of sustai able utilizatio of water resources w ere 0. 43, 0. 39, 0. 42, 0.41, 0.48, 0. 5, 0. 55, 0. 65, 0. 59 a d 0. 63 respectively .T he average level of sustai able utilizat io of w ater resources i Zhe g- zhou is o the rise, but is still i difficulties. T he calculatio by usi g the model shows that the com prehe sive i dices of sustai able utilizatio of w ater resources i future pla i g years (2010, 2015, 2020) are 0. 68, 0.72 a d 0.75. Accordi g to the se sitivity a al- ysis, w e ca co clude that the se sitive factors that affect sust