基于灰色关联指标筛选的BP神经网_省略_滚动预测马尔可夫残差修正模型研究_吕佳良.pdf

第 36卷 第 9期 Vo.l 36 No. 9 2008年 9月 Sept. 2008 基于灰色关联指标筛选的BP神经网络中长期 电力负荷滚动预测马尔可夫残 修正模型研究 , ( , 071003) : , , BP , , , , , , : ; BP ; ; : (; (20040079008) : ( 1983), , , : TM715 : A : 2008) E rror correctingM arkov chain s for m edium / long term load rolling forecasting of BP m od els based on grey relational grade LU Jialiang, ZHANG Zhengang ( School of B siness Adm in istration, North Ch ina E lectric PowerUniv. , Baoding 071003, Ch ina) Abstrac t: To dealw ith the feat res ofm edlong term pow er load forecasting s ch as sam ple shortage and being s bject tom ltiple factors, the grey relational gradew as sed to screen infl encing factors and constr ct the load forecasting m odel based on BP ne ral newt ork algorithm s. The predicted val e obtained by m ltifactor variables and h istorical load variab les is m ore acc rate than that obtained by s ingle forecastingm ethod. Then theM arkov processw as sed to m od ify the forecasting error, w hich makes the prediction acc racy increase greatly. K ey word s: grey relational grade; BP ne ral netw ork; M arkov chain; pow er load [ 4], , , , , , 1~ 2 , , , , BP , , BP , , [ 1], , , , , , , 1 [ 2][ 3], , , , , , 基于灰色关联指标筛选的 BP神经网络中长期电力负荷 11(总1033) , 滚动预测马 可夫残差修正模型研究 步骤 2 ,