spatial and temporal responses to an emissions trading scheme covering agriculture and forestry simulation results from new zealand空间和时间响应一个排放交易计划涵盖农业和林业仿真结果从新西兰.pdf

Forests 2012, 3, 1133-1156; doi:10.3390/f3041133 OPEN ACCESS forests ISSN 1999-4907 /journal/forests Article Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading Scheme Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand Suzi Kerr 1, Simon Anastasiadis 1, Alex Olssen 1, William Power 2, Levente Timar 1,2,* and 3 Wei Zhang 1 Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, PO Box 24390, Wellington 6142, New Zealand; E-Mails: suzi.kerr@.nz (S.K.); simon.anastasiadis@.nz (S.A.); alex.olssen@ (A.O.) 2 GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand; E-Mail: w.power@gns.cri.nz 3 Ministry for Primary Industries, PO Box 2526, Wellington 6140, New Zealand; E-Mail: wei.zhang@t.nz * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: levente.timar@.nz; Tel.: +64-4-939-4250; Fax: +64-4-939-4251. Received: 3 August 2012; in revised form: 30 November 2012 / Accepted: 4 December 2012 / Published: 18 December 2012 Abstract: We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyze the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land use, emissions and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We find that the effect of including agriculture in the ETS is small relative to the effect of including forest