退休年龄及其分布对养老金收支的影响.pdf

摘要 随着人口老龄化不断加剧和我国养老金体系资金缺口问题日益严重，在对 未来的养老金收支和债务进行预测时，是否能够全面、审慎、合理地对各种假 设和参数进行选择，对有效识别和控制我国基本养老保险制度设计中的各种未 来支出风险，合理评估改革措施所能达到的预期效果都有重要意义。退休年龄 是养老金制度设计的重要变量，它将与养老金体系的收支直接发生关系。当前 的研究大多对退休年龄采用点假设，而退休年龄分布假设更接近实际。本文首 先在养老金经济学经典理论框架下研究了退休年龄变动对个人一生养老安排的 影响。其次分析了退休年龄对不同养老金制度收支的影响。最后结合基本养老 保险制度和中国实际，针对同代人和同期人两个维度，分别建立理论模型并进 行实际测算，通过对退休年龄分布和退休年龄点假设的比较，试图得到两种假 设对养老基金收支影响方式的差异。 关键词：退休年龄；养老金；收支 I Abstract With the growing aging population and widen funding gap of our pension system, it is of vital importance to select various assumptions and parameters in a comprehensive, prudent and reasonable way in the future pension payments and debt forecasts, so that we can identify and control a variety of future expenditure risk in the design of Chinas pension system effectively, and assess the expected results which can be achieved by reform measures reasonably. Retirement age is an important variable in the design of pension system which relates to the pension balance directly. Point retirement age assumption is widely used in most current research, while distribution assumption is more realistic. In this paper, firstly, in the framework of the classical theory of pension economics, the influence of change of retirement age on personal life pension arrangements is analyzed. Secondly, analysis of impact of retirement age on different type of pension system is conducted. Finally, based on the basic old-age insurance system and Chinas reality, we established theoretical model and implement simulation on two dimensions, namely, same cohort