一带一路倡议与商业银行风险累积基于利率市场化改革的经验研究.doc

一带一路”倡议与商业银行风险累积 一基于利率市场化改革的经验研究 修丕师 华东师范大学经济与管理学部 棊于屮国16家上市商业银行2008—2015年的数据，运用双向固定效应模型考察 “一带一路”倡议对银行流动性风险的影响方向，并进一步运用而板双重差分 模型检验“一带一路”对异质性银行的风险传导差异，研宄发现：“一带一路” 的顺利开展依赖于国内银行部门支持，并在一定程度上促使银行业整体流动性 被动紧缩;利率市场化改革进程中，银行风险自律性和业务创新有助于缓解银行 风险累积;对外投资企业的组成和融资结构相对单一，“一带一路”对外投资项 目的融资来源主要集中于五大国有银行，这不利于“一带一路”高效可持续发 展;现阶段银行业“风险扩散效应”不强，利率市场化改革有待深入。 关键词： 利率市场化改革;流动性风险;“一带一路”侣议;异质性银行;金融体制改 1金融资源配置;商业银行风险;金融安全; 修丕师(1989—)，男，浙江温州人，华东师范大学经济与管理学部 博士生，主要研宄方向为金融开放与风险。 2017-06-01 基金：教育部人文社科后期规划项目(11JIIQ032) “The Belt and Road” Strategy and Commercial Bank Risk Accumulation:Based on the Empirical Study of Market-oriented Interest Rate Reform XIU Pishi Faculty of Economics and Management，East China Normal University; Abstract： Based on the relevant data of 16 1 isted banks in China from 2008 to 2015, this paper tests the effect of the “The Belt and Road” strategy on bank risk by using two-way fixed effect model and further clarifies the heterogeneity of risk conduction between different banks by using panel DID model. The study finds that: The development of “The Belt and Road” is dependent on domestic banking industry support, thus leading to the passive tightening of the overall liquidity risk level of the domestic banking industry to some degree; In the progress of the market-oriented interest rate reform， the creasing risk selfdiscipline and business innovation would help to ease the impact of “The Belt and Road” on bank risk; OFDI enterprises and financing structure are relatively single, the financing source of overseas investment projects in “The Belt and Road” is mainly concentrated on the five major state-owned banks, and it is not conducive to the sustainable development of “The Belt and Road v ; At this stage, the extent of the risk spread of banks is still not high, and the liberalization of finance and the marketoriented interest rate reform should be developing in depth. Keyword： market-oriented interest reform; liquidity risk of banks; “The Belt and Road” strategy; heterog