不同经济周期下石油价格影响因素的比较研究.pdf

第26卷 第4期 北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) Vol.26摇 No.4 2013年7月 Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(Social Sciences Edition) July,2013 不同经济周期下石油价格影响因素的比较研究 郑海涛,傅摇 蓉 (北京航空航天大学 经济管理学院,北京 100191) 摘摇 要:在文献综述的基础上,对影响石油价格的需求、供给和投机的三方面因素进行描述性分析,分别建立 不考虑经济周期的全样本VAR模型和考虑经济周期的子样本VAR模型。 通过脉冲响应图和方差分解结果 的比较分析,验证基于石油价格特点和经济环境及理论提出的三个观点:石油价格是基于预期的;整体来讲, 需求对石油价格影响显著,供给和投机因素对石油价格影响较弱;石油价格影响因素在不同经济周期下的影 响效果和相对重要性均不同。 研究结论有助于了解石油价格的波动规律,并为中国制定石油政策提供依据。 关键词:石油价格;经济周期;VAR模型;石油政策 中图分类号:F830郾9摇 摇 摇 文献标识码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1008鄄2204(2013)04鄄0063鄄06 Comparison on Influencing Factors of Oil Price under Different Business Cycles Zheng Haitao,FuRong (School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Beijing 100191,China) Abstract:Based on previous papers,this article analyzes the three influencing factors of oil price,including de鄄 mand,supply and speculation,andconstructswhole鄄sampleVARmodelwithout considerationof businesscyclesand sub鄄sample VAR modelswith the consideration of business cycles. The comparison on the result of impulse response and variancedecompositionverifiesthreeopinionsproposedaccordingtothecharacter of oilpriceandeconomictheo鄄 ry:oil pricewas based on expectancy;oil demandwas leading influencing factors,while the influence of oil supply and speculation was little during thewhole period;the influencing effect and relative importance of the three factors were different under different business cycles. The result helps to understand the pattern of fluctuation of oil price, and sheds light on the oil policy of China. Key words:oil price;business cycle;VAR model;oil policy