Tec’slongtail(演讲稿中英对照).doc

Tec’s long tail(演讲稿 中英对照) Id like to speak about technology trends,which is something that many of you follow--but we also follow,for related reasons.我想谈谈技术的发展趋势。那是你们很多人关注的问题我们因为相关的原因也关注它。 Like a lot of companies,create a production is based on technology trends.And so we have to understand not only why techs important,where its going,but also,very importantly,when--the timing is everything. 和很多公司一样，创造产品是建立在技术走势的基础上的产品.所以我们不但需要了解为什么某些技术是重要的，它们朝哪个方向发展，但更重要的是，什么时候─时间就是一切 And its interesting,when you look at the predictions made during the peak of the boom in the 1990s,about e-commerce,or internet traffic,or broadband adoption,or internet advertising,they were all right--they were just wrong in time.Almost every one of those has come true just a few years later.But the difference of a few years on stock-market valuations is obviously extreme.And thats why timing is everything. 有趣的是，当你回顾一些预言，那些在90年代技术爆炸高潮期关于电子商务的预言，或者有关互联网流量，宽带使用和网络广告的预言，他们都是正确的，只不过预言的时间不对，而且几乎所有这些都在几年以后成为现实。但是几年时间在股票市场价值上造成的差异显然是巨大的。所以说时间就是一切。 【第3张幻灯片：Gartner Hype Curve】Youve probably seen something like this before.This is the classic Gartner Hype Curve,which talks about kind of the trajectory of a technologys lifespan.And just for fun,we put a bunch of technologies on it,to show whether they were kind of rising for the first high peak,or whether they were about to crash into the trough of disillusionment,or rise back in the slope of enlightenment,or--et cetera.And this is one way to do technology forecasting;get a sense of where technology is,and then anticipate the next upturn. 你以前很可能也见过这个。这是经典的Gartner Hype曲线，讲述了技术生命周期的轨迹。为了好玩，我们在上面放过很多技术，来展示它们是正在迎接第一个高峰来临的上升期，还是将要毁灭，跌入低谷期，或是回到攀升期，徘徊期。这是预测技术走势的一种方法，估算一下技术在哪里，然后预见下一个转机。 【第4张幻灯片：Linux】We should do any technology that we think is sufficiently important,well typically do it twice.Once,we want to do it first.We want to be the first to do it,for the geeks who appreciate that,well catch it right there at the technology-trigger.But then it com