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Public Health 123 (2009) 188–193
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Public Health
journal homepage: www.elsevi /journals/pubh
Original Research
A spatiotemporal statistical model of the risk factors of human cases of H5N1
avian influenza in South-east Asian countries and China
H-I. Kuo a, C-L. Lu b, W-C. Tseng b, *, H-A. Li b
a Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology, 168 Jifong E. Road, Wufong Township, Taichung County 41349, Taiwan
b Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuo-Kuang Road, Taichung 40246, Taiwan
a r t i c l e i n f o s u m m a r y
Article history: Objectives: This article aims to quantify the risk factors associated with the human cases of H5N1 avian
Received 10 September 2007 influenza in South-east Asian countries and China; a dangerous region for this disease that has the
Received in revised form
potential for a pandemic outbreak.
9 June 2008
Accepted 20 October 2008 Study design: A statistical model with time and spatial dimensions was built to capture the international
Available online 13 January 2009 spread patterns of this disease.
Methods: The grid search method was used to fit the model with 2004–2006 data. The grid search
Keywords: approach is a simple procedure that allows the fit of any function to data.
Influenza A virus Results: This study fo
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