高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究.pdf

August 15, 2006 Asia Pacific: Metals Mining August 15, 2006 Asia Pacific: Metals Mining Asian Coal: China holds the key on back of lower Indonesian supply Key stance China Shenhua Energy (1088.HK, HK$14.54, Neutral) We believe the risk/reward for the Asian and Chinese thermal coal market is still on Key data Current the downside. China is entering a volume rampup cycle—after a period of heavy Price (HK$) 14.54 Price target (HK$) 16.30 capex on greenfield and transportation infrastructure—potentially increasing Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 263,023.1 / 33,813.2 Foreign ownership (%) -- domestic and regional supply in 2H2006 and through 2007. The recent sharp rise in marginal cost for Indonesian producers is incrementally positive, in our view, but 12/05 12/06E 12/07E 12/08E