Weibull分布航天产品可靠性评估的MMLE_Bayes方法.pdf

2006 6 FOUNDATION SUPPORTED PROJECT : 1001- 893X ( 2006) 06- 0022- 06 Weibull分布航天产品可靠性评估的MMLE- Bayes方法 程皖民, 冯 静, 周经伦, 孙 权 ( , 4 10073) : 航天产品现场使用数据具有小子样零失效的特点, 要实现其工程化可靠性评 , 需要充分 利用各种环境下的试验信息和相似型号产品的试验信息及使用信息, 因此, 提出了一种适用于 W eibu ll分布航天产品可靠性综合评 的MM LE - Bayes方法首先通过MM LE 方法得到额定任务 时间可靠度的置信下限 计, 再通过构造合理的验前分布实现 Bayes可靠性评 在此过程中, 为 合理融合各来源的验前信息, 提出了环境因子和相似因子的概念及其 计方法最后通过 一种航天 产品的可靠性评 实例, 说明了MMLE- Bayes- W eibu ll方法的的实用性和有效性 : 航天产品; 可靠性评 ; W eibull分布; 零失效; 修正极大似然 计方法; 相似因子; 环境因子 : TB114. 3 : A MMLE- Bayes Reliability A ssessmentM etho forAerospace Pro uctswithW eibullDistribution CH EN G W an - m in, FEN G J ing, ZH O U J ing - lun, S UN Quan ( ystem Engineering Department, Information ystem and M anagement chool, NationalU niversity ofDefense Technology, Changsha 410073, China) Abstract:The senery data of aerospace products is of such characteristics as small samp le and zero failure. In order to realize the reliability assessmen,t prior information from multip le sources such as test data in different environment and test data of smi ilar product should bew ell used by environmental factor and smi -i lar factor. Themethod named MMLE - Bayes is proposed, in wh ich the confidence low level of task relia- b ility is obtained through modified maxmi um likehood method. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the efficiency of theMM LE - Bayes-W eibu llm ethod. Key wor s: aerospace product; reliab ility assessment; W eibull distribution; zero failure; modified max-i mum likelihood estmi ation method(MM LE); smi ilar factor; environmental factor mG 1