先抑后扬牛势清.doc

先抑后扬牛势清 何妨顺势且徐行 A Bear Turned into a Bull. Please Follow the Trend Cautiously. 内容概述： 07年大连玉米期货市场仍然吸引了众多投资者的目光.行情先抑后扬，行情虽然曲折，但牛市风采依旧,最终创出04年重新上市以来的新高。国际市场上，美国仍然在使用大量的玉米作为原料生产燃料乙醇，由于原油价格的疯狂上涨，这种使用量还将进一步扩大，这种举措将使国际玉米市场的供需关系长期处于紧张的状态。全球性的通货膨胀使得商品价格总体上出现了较大规模的上涨，身处通货膨胀中的农民惜售心理严重，对玉米价格构成强劲支撑。国家的宏观调控及对农产品的加大拍卖数量导致短期内对市场造成了一定程度的利空影响，使玉米市场产生阶段性的调整.但从长期来看,供需关系将使玉米市场在新的一年里再续辉煌。 Abstract. The Dalian corn futures market drew the attention of many investors in 2007. The price was depressed at first but then began to rise. In general, the market remained bullish despite of the fluctuations along the way, ending up with a new high since 2004, the year when corn futures returned to the market.Abroad, the United States keeps producing fuel ethanol out of corn, and with the soaring crude oil price, the usage of corn for fuel purpose is going to increase. Such practice will keep the supply and the demand of corn in the international market out of balance for a long time to come. The inflation of a global scale resulted in a significant increase in commodity prices. Expecting further price increases, farmers were reluctant to sell, which provided a strong support to corn prices. The government’s macroeconomic policies and a boost in auctions of agricultural products helped more or less to keep a check on the market and led to a temporary adjustment in corn prices. In the long run, however, the imbalance between the supply of and the demand for corn will keep its prices upward in the coming year. 第一部分 2007年玉米市场行情回顾 国际玉米市场回顾 第一阶段：延续06年下半年的涨势 （1.03-2.22) 继06年的强劲走势后，07年伊始美国玉米借助美国农业部报告的强烈美农业部公布的月度供需报告显示，美玉米饲料用量预估调至58.5亿蒲，较上月报告下降1.25亿蒲，这是因为养殖户更多的使用了成本相对较低的小麦等其它谷物饲料。7月CBOT玉米期货市场受小麦走强提振及作物优良率低于预期支撑走出反弹行情由于欧洲小麦生长条件恶化期价创纪录新高。美农业部公布的美玉米优良率低于预期，这也为玉米市场提供支撑。另外，经过期大幅下跌近50美分后，玉米市场指标超卖状况也令期价存在技术性反弹要求。市场对天气的炒做开始降温，期价走势更多地受到周边大豆、小麦市场影响。同时，美玉米的潜在良好需求对期价仍有支撑。美联储宣布降低再贴现利率显示了其要扭转当金融市场动荡形势的决心，这对商品市场也起到了很大提振作用。原油以及大豆市场的坚挺表现均对玉米市场构成支撑能源上涨引发的通胀担忧、少量终端用户买盘现货基差稳定等因素强化玉米市场上涨基调，长期基本面预期也为其提供额外支撑。为保证