我国城镇居民消费结构变动趋势分析.doc

目 录 中文摘要·····················································1 英文摘要·····················································1 城镇居民消费结构的变动趋势和特点························2 （一）食品消费支出总量增加，比重下降，质量提高············2 （二）住房、汽车消费已经成为消费热点和新经济增长点········2 （三）保险消费正逐渐成为一项新的消费热点··················3 （四）教育及旅游支出增加··································3 （五）医疗费用支出快速增长，保健品市场潜力巨大············4 我国城镇居民消费结构的静态分析··························4 （一）ELES 数学模型及参数估计·····························4 （二）基本需求分析········································7 （三）边际消费倾向分析····································8 （四）弹性分析············································8 消费结构变动的影响因素··································10 （一）收入水平············································10 （二）商品价格的变化······································10 （三）消费观念············································10 （四）生产因素············································11 （五）体制改革及政策因素··································11 结束语··················································11 参考文献·····················································13 我国城镇居民消费结构变动趋势分析 摘要：改革开放以来,我国城镇居民家庭恩格尔系数不断下降，消费结构发生了一系列变化，同时又呈现出一些新的特征。该文利用EL ES模型对城镇居民消费需求和消费结构进行了研究，分析得出：医疗保健、交通通信、教育文娱和居住的基本消费需求增长明显，食品、居住、家庭设备和杂项的需求收入弹性呈现下降的趋势，衣着、医疗保健、交通通信和教育文娱的需求收入弹性呈上升的趋势。家庭设备、交通通信和教育文娱的价格弹性相对其它消费项目较大，但各项商品的价格弹性均表现出不同程度的下降趋势。并且运用扩展支出模型，对我国城镇居民消费结构进行了实证分析，最后提出了优化居民消费结构的政策建议。 关键词：城镇居民，消费结构，扩展的线性支出系统（ELES）模型，边际消费倾向，需求收入弹性，需求价格弹性 Abstract: Since reform and opened to the world, town inhabitant family Engel coefficient unceasingly drops and town residents’ consumption structure has experienced a series of change. This paper studies the change of consumer demand and consumer structure of Chinese urban residents by using ELES model. The results indicate that basic consumer demand on medicine and medical services, transport and communication services, education and cultural services and residence increase more remarkable than others. There is a decline trend about income elasticities of demand