我国粮食最低收购价政策的实施效果分析.pdf

  摘 要 本文通过研究宏观市场价格层面的“托市”效果和微观种粮农民基本收益 层面的保障效果，对粮食最低收购价政策实施的效果进行分析。建立完全竞争 和存在买方垄断势力市场结构中的政策“托市”效果原理的理论模型，再通过 对 2005-2009 年全国粮食批发市场价格数据和全国粮食主产区原粮实际收购价 格数据的统计分析，对政策实施的“托市”效果进行确认；基于交易成本影响 下的农户售粮模型，引用国务院发展研究中心农村经济研究部 2006 年在湖北、 江西二省的农户调查数据，运用简单线性回归模型对种粮农民基本收益保障层 面的政策实施效果进行分析。分析结果表明，从整体上而言粮食最低收购价政 策的实施在市场价格层面起到了“托市”效果；交易成本的客观存在对政策保 障种粮农民基本收益的效果起到了较显著的负向影响，而政策启动时间偏晚、 国有粮食收购点数量偏少、不同品质的粮食品种之间收购价格差距不明显有可 能会强化交易成本对政策效果的负向影响。本文认为，粮食最低收购价政策可 以从启动时机、不同品质粮食品种价差、国有粮食收购点数量及最低收购价标 准的定位 4 个方面进行必要的改进。 关键词 粮食；最低收购价政策；托市效果；收益保障效果；交易成本   Abstract This thesis analyzes the effects of the implementation results of minimum purchase price policy by investigating the effects of price support from macroeconomic perspective and the effects of farmers ’ revenue protection from microeconomic perspective. The effects of price support are analyzed by constructing theoretical models and statistical analysis of national grains wholesale market price data and major grains producing areas ’ purchase price data during 2005-2009. And then models of farmers ’ behavior of selling grains are established, so the effects of farmers ’ revenue protection can be analyzed by simple linear regression models with the data obtained from the Department of Rural Economy Research of State Council Research Center ’s field survey in Hubei and Jiangxi Province in 2006. The results indicate that the implementation of minimum purchase price policy has gained price support effects in general; the existence of transaction costs has negative impacts on the farmers ’ revenue protection, and the delay of th