基于区位的城市停车需求预测研究-交通运输工程专业论文.docx

Study on the Urban parking demand prediction Based on Location A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Nie Tingting Supervisor：Prof. Chen Kuanmin Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 摘要 摘 要 Abstr Abstract I I PAGE PAGE IV 随着国民经济的发展，城市规模不断扩大，汽车保有量不断增加，城市停车问题日 益严重，现有的停车设施已不能满足日益增长的停车需求，停车规划的相关研究逐渐被 提到日程上来。停车需求预测是停车规划的基本内容，是制定停车场设施建设方案的基 础，也是确定停车发展战略的依据，因此，提高停车需求预测的准确性是非常重要的。 本文根据我国停车规划的实际情况，借鉴国内外停车需求预测的相关经验，以交通区位 势理论为基础，建立了基于区位的城市停车需求预测模型。 本文在研究国内外有关停车规划的文献、研究成果的基础上，分析了已有停车需求 预测模型的不足，对停车需求预测模型的改进作了探讨。首先对停车者的出行特征和机 动车车辆停放特性进行了详细分析；在此基础上系统的介绍了城市停车需求的相关概念 和影响因素，总结了停车供给对城市交通的影响，探讨了城市停车供需的互动关系；系 统的阐述了停车需求预测的常规方法及其特点；分析现有区位理论模型，以停车生成率 模型为基础，引入区位势理论来量化区域的区位特征，再加入泊位周转率对需求预测结 果进行修正，建立基于区位的停车需求预测模型；最后，以西安市次核心商业圈小寨为 例进行实例分析及模型验证，通过对区位理论模型进行参数标定及模型求解，将改进前 后的预测值进行比较分析，使预测模型具有实用性。 关键词：交通区位势，停车特征，停车生成率，停车需求预测 Along with the rapid development of national economy, the city scale and car ownership increase unceasingly. Parking problems in city become more and more serious. The existing parking facilities havent meet the growing parking demand. The research of urban parking facility planning was gradually mentioned on schedule. Parking demand forecasting is the basic content of parking planning, and also the basis for parking development planning. Parking demand is the foundation of parking facilities construction scheme. Therefore, improve the accuracy of parking demand forecasting is very important. This paper according to the actual situation of parking plan in China, borrow ideas from parking demand forecast research both in domestic and abroad. Set up parking demand forecasting model base on the theories of space locations. In this paper, author discussed the improvement of the parking demand forecasting model. First and foremost, author detailed analysis the trip characteristics of parker and the parking characteristics of motor vehicle, recommend the concept and influencing factors of urban parking demand, discussed the interactive relationship between the pa