近40年丹江口库区潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因素.doc

近40年丹江口库区潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因素 　　摘要：全球气候变化背景下，丹江口库区潜在蒸散量变化特征对于南水北调中线水源区水循环研究及水资源评估具有重要意义。应用PenmanMonteith蒸散模型估算潜在蒸散量，分析近40年丹江口库区潜在蒸散量和干燥度指数时间变化规律，研究结果表明：（1）丹江口库区年降水量呈波动减少趋势，年均值839.9 mm，其中年降水量、雨季和旱季降水量分别以143 mm/（10a）、45 mm/（10a）和90 mm/（10a）的速率减少；（2）丹江口库区年蒸散量呈波动增加趋势，年均值8600 mm，其中年蒸散量、雨季和旱季蒸散量分别以122 mm/（10a）、102 mm/（10a）和29 mm/（10a）的速率增加；（3）丹江口库区干燥度指数呈波动增加趋势，年均值107，其中年干燥度指数、雨季和旱季干燥度指数分别以002/（10a）、007/（10a）和031/（10a）的速率增加；（4）潜在蒸散量与干燥度指数和相对湿度呈显著负相关性，与平均风速和日照时数呈显著正相关性，与温度相关性不显著。近40年来，由于降水量减少和蒸散量增加，丹江口库区气候有向干旱化演变的趋势。 　　关键词：潜在蒸散；干燥度指数；雨季和旱季；距平百分率 　　中图分类号：P426文献标志码：A文章编号： 　2016 　　[JP2]Variation characteristics and influencing factors of potential evapotranspiration in Danjiangkou reservoir area 　　WANG Tiejun1，XIAO Ye2，HUANG Zhigang2，3，YAO Lunguang1，CHANG Wei1，WANG Chenxi1，WEI ShengNan1 　　（1.Key Laboratory of Ecological Security for Water Source Region of Midline Project of SouthtoNorth Water Diversion in Henan Province，Nanyang Normal University，Nanyang 473061，China； 　　2.College of Resource Environment and Tourism，Hunan University of Arts and Science，Changde 415000；3.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Changchun 130102，China） 　　Abstract：Variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration （ET0） has important significance in water cycle research and water resource assessment in the background of global climate change in Danjiangkou reservoir area.ET0 and dry index （DI） measured by PenmanMonteith model were analyzed based on the measured meteorological data duringwhich came from the National Meteorological Center public network.The results showed that：（1） Annual precipitation with a mean value of 839.9 mm decreased with the increment of annual series，and the annual，rainy season and dry season precipitation decreased by 14.3，4.5 and 9.0 mm/（10a） respectively.（2） Annual ET0 with a mean value of 860.0 mm increased with the increment of annual series，and the annual，rainy season and dry season ET0 incre