麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚策略：鼷鹿已走.pdf

MALAYSIA Malaysia strategy MGS bond yield vs. MGS foreign This mouse deer has moves holding Conclusion 55% 5.0% 50% 4.5%  A Malay proverb goes that when two elephants fight, the mouse deer in 45% 4.0% between is trampled to death. As an economy-centric Great Game between 40% 35% 3.5% the US and China looks to be gaining momentum, the Malaysian mouse deer 30% 3.0% is potentially a more shrewd opportunist than a hapless victim. While 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - n r l t n r l t n r l t n conclusive trade outcomes remain uncertain, Malaysia’s relatively a p u c a p u c a p u c a J A J O J A J O J A J O J unprovocative broader current account dynamics mitigate risk of attracting Foreign ownership of MGS (%) direct US protectionist ire. Immediate benefits may flow from a potential MGS 10Y yield (RHS) scaling back of China’s US Treasury purchases and high oil prices. The KLCI’s defensive appeal remains evident (fig 7) as blue chips are well Source: BNM, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March supported; bargain hunting should focus on