研究文章气候变化对亚洲农业影响门德尔松耶鲁林业与环境学25nyjj.pdf

JournalofIntegrativeAgriculture

2014,13(4):660-665April2014

RESEARCHARTICLE

TheImpactofClimateChangeonAgricultureinAsia

RobertMendelsohn

SchoolofryandEnvironmentalStudies,YaleUniversity,NewHavenCT06511,USA

AsianagricultureisresponsiblefortwothirdsofglobalagriculturalGDP.Therehavebeennumerousstudieploringthe

impactofclimatechangeoncropsinspecificlocationsinAsiabutnostudyhasyetyzedcropsacrosstheentirecontinent.

ThisstudyreliesonaRicardianstudyofthatestimatedclimatecoefficientsforcrops.Thesecoefficientsare

thenusedtointerpolatepotentialclimatedamagesacrossthecontinent.Withcarbonfertilization,themodelpredictssmall

aggregateeffectswitha1.5°CwarmingbutdamagesofaboutUS$84billionwith3°Cwarming.ispredictedtobe

especiallyvulnerable.

:agriculture,climatechange,Asia,Ricardian

estimatedusinglandvaluesandfarrevenues

INTRODUCTIONacrossclimatezones.Allofthesestudiesfindthatcrops

aresensitivetochangesintemperature(IPCC2007;

Asiaisthemostpopulouscontinentonearthaccount-MendelsohnandDinar2009).Theconsistencyofthese

ingfor63%oftheglobalpopulation.Withthegreenfindingssuggeststhatthereishighconfidencethat

revolution,however,Asianfarmersaccountfor67%ofcropsarepotentiallyvulnerabletoclimatechange.T