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Out of freefallBy Krishna Guha , Sarah OConnor in Washington 2009-05-07 Almost two months after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, uttered the words “green shoots” of recovery in a television interview, debate continues to rage as to whether the world economy is starting to stabilise and will soon turn the corner. Compared with the start of the year – when the global economy was falling off a cliff in a synchronised contraction of unprecedented rapidity – the situation has improved dramatically. While almost all of the worlds leading economies are still shrinking, some at a still very rapid pace, forward-looking economic data point at least to a moderation in the rate of decline and potentially much more. The outlook in many parts of Europe – including the UK and Germany – and in Japan has not brightened very much, but the outlook in the US and China, the two most plausible engines of global recovery, looks better. Four developments in particular hold promise for the future: some easing in financial conditions globally; a pick-up in growth in China; an apparent bottoming out in US home sales and house construction; and a patchy increase in US consumer spending. The question is whether the plateauing in global activity apparently in train is the final bottom in this economic cycle and whether the so-called “green shoots” represent the beginnings of a sustainable rebound. Lawrence Summers, senior economic adviser to US President Barack Obama, remains cautious. He told Fox News on Sunday April 26: “That sense of unremitting free fall that we had a month or two ago is not present today.” But he added: “Its going to be a very long road. There are going to be steps forward and there are also going to be steps backwards.” In most recessions, a slowing in the rate of decline naturally leads to a bottoming and then a recovery as investors, businesses and consumers stop worrying about economic Armageddon, satisfy themselves that past excesses have been worked