经季节性调整的对外贸易统计数字.PDF

經季節性調整的對外貿易統計數字 Seasonal Adjustment of External Trade Statistics 個別月份的對外貿易表現會受季節性變異所影響。例如，在出口旺季或一些時 令節日如聖誕節前，對外貿易通常會增加。透過統計方法，可將明顯和穩定的 季節性差異從對外貿易原來統計數列中剔除，從而更清楚地看到其基本趨勢。 為方便分析香港的外貿表現，政府統計處於一九九九年八月開始發布經季節性 調整的香港對外質易統計數字。本文主要介紹經季節性調整對外賀易統計數字 的特性和編製方法，並分析有關數據在近年的變動，情況。 甘le perfonnance of extemal 仕adein individual months is subject to seasonal vàriation. F or instance， extemal 仕adeusually expands during an export peak period or prior to some seasonal festivals such as Christmas. Through the application of statistical methods， c1ear and stable seasonal variations can be removed from the original series of the extemal trade statistics so that i但 under1ying 仕endcan be discemed more distinctly. To facilitate analysis on Hong Kongs extemal 仕adeperfonnance， seasonally adjusted trade statistics have been re1eased by the Census and Statistics Depa的nent since August 1999. This artic1e in仕oduces the features and compi1ation me也od of the seasori.ally adjusted extemal trade statistics. It also analyses the movements of the da個concemed in the recent years. 如對本文有任何查詢 請致電政府統計處貿易統計資料 布 電話 2582 5041 ， 發 組 ( : )。 If you have any enquiries on this article， please call Trade Statistics Dissemination Section， Census and Statistics Depa此ment (Tel. : 2582 5041). 香港統計月刊 二零零零年十一月 FAl Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics November 2000 經季節性調整的對外貿易統計數字 Seasonal Adjustment of External Trade Statistics 1. 引言