企业财务知识培训资料(ppt24页)（英文版）.pptx

CHAPTER13

OtherTopicsinCapitalBudgetingEvaluatingprojectswithunequallivesEvaluatingprojectswithembeddedoptionsValuingrealoptionsinprojects

SandLaremutuallyexclusiveandwillberepeated.k=10%.Whichisbetter?ExpectedNetCFsYearProjectSProjectL0($100,000)($100,000)159,00033,500259,00033,5003--33,5004--33,500

SLCF0-100,000-100,000CF159,00033,500Nj24I1010NPV2,3976,190Q.NPVLNPVS.IsLbetter?A.Can’tsay.Needreplacementchainanalysis.

NotethatProjectScouldberepeatedafter2yearstogenerateadditionalprofits.UsereplacementchaintocalculateextendedNPVStoacommonlife.SinceShasa2-yearlifeandLhasa4-yearlife,thecommonlifeis4years.

L:S:012310%33,5004012310%59,000433,50033,50033,500-100,00059,00059,00059,000-100,000NPVL=$6,190(alreadytoYear4)NPVS=$4,377(onextendedbasis)-100,000-41,000

Whatisrealoptionanalysis?Realoptionsexistwhenmanagerscaninfluencethesizeandriskinessofaproject’scashflowsbytakingdifferentactionsduringtheproject’slife.RealoptionanalysisincorporatestypicalNPVbudgetinganalysiswithananalysisforopportunitiesresultingfrommanagers’decisions.

Whataresomeexamplesof

realoptions?InvestmenttimingoptionsAbandonment/shutdownoptionsGrowth/expansionoptionsFlexibilityoptions

AnIllustrationofInvestmentTimingOptionsIfweproceedwithProjectL,itsNPVis$6,190.(Recalltheup-frontcostwas$100,000andthesubsequentCFswere$33,500ayearforfouryears).However,ifwewaitoneyear,wewillfindoutsomeadditionalinformationregardingoutputpricesandthecashflowsfromProjectL.

InvestmentTiming(Continued)Ifwewait,thereisa50%chancethesubsequentCFswillbe$43,500ayear,anda50%chancethesubsequentCFswillbe$23,500ayear.Ifwewait,theup-frontcostwillremainat$100,000.

InvestmentTimingDecisionTree50%prob.50%prob.0 1 2 3 45Years-$100,00043,