波士顿咨询BCG2024塑造电力市场的五大力量分析报告英文版17页.pdf

TheFiveForces

Transforming

PowerMarkets

September2024

ByTomBrijs,MauriceBerns,ZsófiaBeck,AndersPorsborg-Smith,

VivianLee,PhilHirschhorn,TomBaker,andJonasGeerinck

TheFiveForcesTransforming

PowerMarkets

Astheworldchartsacoursetowardanet-zerofuture,weexpectto

seeafundamentalshiftinhowenergymarketsoperate.Transforma-

tionalchanges—manyofwhicharealreadyunfolding—willbecome

morepronouncedastheshareofrenewablesintheglobalgenera-

tionmixgrows.AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency’sNet

Zeroby2050roadmap,solarphotovoltaicandwindwillmakeup72%

ofpowergenerationbymid-centurycomparedwith11%in2020.

TheresultingchangeswillhavehugeimplicationsformarketThroughourwork,we’veidentifiedthefollowingfiveforces

participants.Toadequatelypreparefortheglobalenergysys-thataresettoshapeelectricitymarketsthroughtheenergy

temoftomorrow,playersneedtounderstandhowpowertransitionandbeyond:

marketdynamicsareevolvingtoday.

AFixed-CostWorld.Drivenbyrenewables,electricitysystems

BCG’sCenterforEnergyImpacthasdevelopedaproprietarywillincreasinglyshifttofixed-costgeneration.Between85%and

modeltoexplorechangesinenergymarketsbasedondifferent90%ofallcostsrelatedtogenerationandflexibilitywillbefixed.

possiblescenarios,andwehaveappliedittoEuropeforthis

publication.TwokeypolicyinitiativesformthebackboneofourElectricityWillOftenBeFree...Periodswhenelectricity

assumptions:theEU’sFitfor55pledgetocutgreenhousegaspricesarerelativelylow,andevennearzero,willoccurfar

emissionsbyatleast55%by2030(from2021levels),anditsmorefrequently.Priceswillbebelow€20permegawatt-

ambitiontoach