《Monte Carlo simulation applications for project management》.pdf

Ar ticle EXPLORING MONTE C ARLO SIMUL ATION APPLIC ATIONS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT a b Young Hoon Kwak and Lisa Ing all a Department of Decision Sciences, School of Business, The George Washington University , Washington , DC , USA b IBM Systems Technology Group , Silver Spring , MD , USA Correspondence: Young Hoon Kwak , Associate Professor of Project Management, Department of Decision Sciences, School of Business, The George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA. E-mail: kwak@ Abstract Monte Carlo simulation is a useful technique for modeling and analyzing real-world systems and situations. This paper is a conceptual paper that explores the applications of Monte Carlo simulation for managing project risks and uncertainties. The benefits of Monte Carlo simulation are using quantified data, allowing project managers to better justify and communicate their arguments when senior management is pushing for unrealistic project expectations. Proper risk management education, training, and advancements in computing technology combined with Monte Carlo simulation soft- ware allow project managers to implement the method easily. In the field of project management, Monte Carlo simulation can quantify the effects of risk and uncertainty in project schedules and budgets, giving the project manager a statistical indicator of project performance such as target project completion date and budget. Keywords Monte Carlo simulation, project management, risk analysis and management, exploratory study Risk Management (2007) 9, 44–57. doi:10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250017 Risk Management 2007, 9, (44–57) © 2007 Palgrave Macmillan Ltd 1460–3799/07 $30.00 /rm Risk Management