a-template-for-understanding--ray-dalio-bridgewater教程.pdf

A Template for Understanding… …How the Economic Machine Works and How it is Reflected Now Ray Dalio Created October 31, 2008 | Updated March, 2012 The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood. I wrote this paper to describe how I believe it works. My description is not the same as conventional economists’ descriptions so you should decide for yourself whether or not what I’m saying makes sense. I will start with the simple things and build up, so please bear with me. You will be able to understand and assess my description if we patiently go through it. How the Economic Machine Works: “A Transactions-Based Approach” An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up. A transaction is a simple thing. Because there are a lot of them, the economy looks more complex than it really is. If instead of looking at it from the top down, we look at it from the transaction up, it is much easier to understand. A transaction consists of the buyer giving money (or credit) to a seller and the seller giving a good, a service or a financial asset to the buyer in exchange. A market consists of all the buyers and sellers making exchanges for the same things – e.g., the wheat market consists of different people making different transactions for d