美联储-家庭是否会临时替代？10个结构性冲击表明不会（英）-2025.3.docx

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries

FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)

ISSN2767-3898(Online)

DoHouseholdsSubstituteIntertemporally?10StructuralShocksThatSuggestNot

EdmundCrawley2025-021

Pleasecitethispaperas:

Crawley, Edmund(2025).

“DoHouseholds

StructuralShocksThatSuggestNot,”Finance

2025-021. Washington: BoardofGovernors

SubstituteIntertemporally? 10

andEconomicsDiscussionSeriesoftheFederalReserveSystem,

/10.17016/FEDS.2025.021.

NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.

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DoHouseholdsSubstituteIntertemporally?

10StructuralShocksThatSuggestNot*

EdmundCrawley

March2025

Abstract

Icombinemicrodataontheintertemporalmarginalpropensitytoconsumewith10structuralmacroshockstoidentifytheroleofintertemporalsubstitutioninconsump-tionbehavior.AlthoughsomeofthestructuralshocksthatIexamineleadtolargeandpersistentchangesinrealinterestrates—whichinmanymodelswouldinducealargeintertemporalsubstitutioneffect—Ifindnoevidencethathouseholdsshiftthetimingoftheirconsumptioninresponsetotheseinterestratechanges.Indeed,changestotheexpectedpathofincomeexplainalmostalltheaggregateconsumptionresponse,leavingnoroleforintertemporalsubstitution.

JEL:E21,E32,E52

Keywords:IntertemporalSubstitution,HANK,MonetaryPolicy,Consumption

*Viewpointsandconclusionsstatedinthispaperaretheresponsibilityoftheautho