【Bernstein-2025研报】AGL：伯恩斯坦SDC的要点.pdf

COMMENT29May2025

AGL:TakeawaysfromBernsteinsSDC

LanceWilkes

+191738501

lance.wilkes@

AmirFarahani,

CFA

+191738343

amir.farahani@

WilliamRobbins

+191738536

william.robbins@

AGLbackground.AGLhasbuiltaunique,long-term,20-yearpartnershipwithmedicalgroupsincommunitieswiththeirPCPshavinglong-

standingrelationshipswiththeirseniorpatients.TheyhelpthesedoctorsmovetheirpatientsandthehealthplansfromaFFSmodeltoarisk-

basedmodel.ThroughthesepartnershipsAGLhasbeenabletoscalethecompanywith2,200primarycaredoctors,30-pluspartnerships,

in12states,and600k+seniorpatients.AGLbelievesithasdrivenbest-in-classqualityandcostoutcomes,beatinglocalbenchmarksby20

to30%.

PayerinterestinVBCanddemandforthissolutionremainsstrong.AGLsaidPCPsareatacriticaljunctureastheyarecomingthrough

yearthreeofachallengingmacroenvironment.AGLbelievesdemandamongphysiciangroupsforthemovetovaluecontinuestobevery

strong.Itisalsostrongamongpayers.AGLbelievesdemandwillcontinuetobestronggiventhemacroandpolicyrisksaroundqualityand

auditsthatrequirepristinecaptureofdiagnostics.AGLreiterateditsguideof30to45knewmembersin‘26.

AGLdisciplinedapproachwithcontracts.AGLsaidtheyareworkinghardandnegotiatingwithplanstoberewardedforcostcategories

theycontrolandcarveoutthosethattheydon’t.Theyarewillingtowalkawayfromamarketorpayersiftheydonotbelievethecontractworks

forthem.ThisapproachledtoAGLpayerfootprintshrinkingby10%.AGLbelievespayerswanttoworkwithAGLastheyvaluewhatAGLoffers

them(costsavingsandhigherquality).

AGLcommentsonriskadjustmentreinforcespreviousguideof2%.AGLcallsri