【Jefferies-2025研报】追踪泳池3月泳池建设许可恢复增长.pdf

EquityResearch

USA|Multi-IndustrialsMay19,2025

TrackingPools:PoolPermitsBacktoGrowthin

March

Mar.USresidentialpoolconstructionpermitsincreased4%Y/Yfollowing

declineinFeb.,with1Q25permitsup1%.

ProprietaryPoolPermitData.Weanalyzeandclassifyasubsetofjurisdiction-levelpool

constructionpermitdata(~80%coverage)acrosstheUSprovidedbyBuildFax.Weselected

jurisdictionsthathaveconsistentreportingpatternstoaccountforvaryingreportingfrequencies,

andouranalysisadjuststhedatatocompensateforvolatility.Thisallowsustopredicttheeventual

permitcount.Ourlatestdatapointhasawiderconfidenceinterval,withM-3andM-2datasubject

torestatementsof~2%and~4%,respectively.

PermitsUpMSD.Mar.permitsincreasedMSD(up4%Y/Y)followingadeclineinFebruarybut

cameinweaker-than-normalseasonality(up18%M/Mvs.up34%M/Mhistorically).Thisputs

1Q25permitsup1%vs.PoolCorp.commentaryforweaker1Q25permits,butwebelievethisis

withinthemarginoferror.

Poolcompaniescontinuetoforecastmuteddemandfornewpoolconstructionthisyear.POOL,

Fluidra,andPNRarelookingforflatnewconstructiongrowth,whileHAYWassumesamodest

decline.

Exhibit1-Mar.USresidentialpoolpermitsExhibit2-1Q25USnewresidentialpoolpermits

increased4%Y/Y