中国二氧化碳排放的驱动因素.pdf

1 Journey to world top emitter – an analysis of the driving 2 forces of China’s recent CO2 emissions surge ∗1 2 3 4 3 Dabo Guan , Glen P. Peters , Christopher L. Weber , Klaus Hubacek 4 5 1 Electricity Policy Research Group, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 6 Cambridge, CB2 1AG, UK 2 7 Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), 8 N-0318 Norway 9 3 Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 10 USA 4 11 Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of 12 Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK ∗ Corresponding author: Ph: +44 (0) 1223760554. E-mail: d.guan@jbs.cam.ac.uk 1 1 Introduction 2 China’s recent double-digit economic growth, from 2002 to 2007, was largely driven 3 by rapid growth of export production, placing China as the third largest exporter and 4 fourth largest economy in the world. China’s export-orientated production has grown 5 by 26% annually over this period, twice the average export growth rate since 1990, 6 when China opened its trade with the West. By 2005, total export was one-third the 7 size of Chinas GDP, increased from 12% in 1987 and 23% in 2002. The dominant 8 exporting sectors include electronics, metals, chemicals and textiles products. 9 10 The large-scale boom in manufacturing has lead to an increased consumption of 11 carbon-intensive fuels. China’s primary energy consumption nearly doubled from 12 2002 (1,482 million tones coal equivalence - Mtce) to 2007 (2,656 Mtce), reflecting 13 exponential growth in energy cons