基于Petri网的通讯电子产品供应链风险仿真研究0309..doc

基于Petri网的通讯电子产品供应链风险仿真研究 摘要：面对日益复杂的网络化供应链系统建立仿真模型进行风险分析、识别研究，以便通过灵活设定系统运行参数及早发布风险预警信息，有助于供应链相关节点企业提前寻求合适的风险规避与应对措施，进行有效决策。 本文针对通讯电子产品供应链的特征进行分析并且提出了典型通讯电子产品供应链运行过程中发生概率较高的六个具体风险因素，进行了详细描述。本文以供应链中的品牌厂商向供应商提出的生产计划订单为核心，根据供应链的运行流程，建立了通讯电子产品供应链的Petri网模型用以分析其运行过程的风险，并完成了Stateflow系统仿真软件的设计与实现。通过仿真实验，可进行相应的风险分析，为通讯电子产品供应链的稳定可靠运行进行了探索，相关仿真研究的结论可供企业界参考。 关键词：供应链风险； Petri网； Stateflow仿真； 通讯电子产品 文献标识码：A 中图分类号： ABSTRACT: Facing the supply chain network that gets complicated day after day, it will be useful and convenient for the relevant nodes of the chain to conduct the risk analysis and identification, which is conducive to the release of the risk forecast by setting the system parameter flexibly, the search for proper risk averse, and solutions, so as to come up with an strategic decision. The analysis regards the process of supply chain of the typical communicative electronic products, and put forward six risk factors which own high probability through the operation of supply chain for typical communications electronics. Based on the production order from brand firm to their suppliers, as well as the typical procedure of supply chain, this paper not only establishes the Petri network for analyzing the risks when the communicative electronic products are running, but also designs and implements the simulating mechanism by using Stateflow under Matlab Simulink. In the process of system simulation, the risk analysis can be carried out, which conducts the discovery for the stability of the supply chain, and provides pertinent conclusion to enterprises. KEYWORDS：supply chain risk; Petri net; Stateflow simulation; communicative electronic products 1 引言 随着科技进步和经济的飞速发展，全球市场的竞争越来越激烈，一个企业仅仅依靠自身能力发展的模式已经渐渐被淘汰了，供应链管理正逐渐成为企业增强自身竞争力，抢占市场的有效手段之一。但是在企业享受供应链所带来的益处和优势时，一些供应链受到波动甚至中断的事件也困扰着管理人员和研究学者。对于这些在供应链运行过程中，任一环节出现的导致供应链运行不畅通乃至中断，并最终导致供应链上的节点企业或整个供应链利益受损的因素和事件称之为供应链风险。因此，对供应链的风险进行分析、评估，建立模型进行仿真预测，有助于及早应对供应链管理过程中可能出现的风险，有利于提