招商证 券-全球宏观经济图册(2010年7月)-100805.pdf

Macro Report Global Macro Chartbook July 2010 China: Macro-control Began to Show Effects Edward Anhua Ding Currency reforms and macro-control show effects gradually. Yuan has Chief Economist appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar since June 19 while import and export dinganhua@cmschina. growth slows. Leading indicators and industrial added value suggest that Chinas economy cools which is in line with policy expectations. Real estate control Dr. David XIE policy began to show effects. House prices in 70 cities drop for the first time in （86-755 16 months and new construction area shows a clear downward trend. As the xieyx@ expansion of aggregate demand slows down, CPI drops more than expected. Meanwhile, the declining commodity prices drag down the PPI growth, reducing Dr. Cliff ZHAO the possibility of imported inflation. Inflationary pressure is easing. We believe （852 that inflation will peak in the third quarter, given the complex economic situation, wenlizhao@ the probability of an interest rate hike in 2010 is lower. Qing LI United States: Long Way to Go for Full Recovery （852 U.S. economy continues to recover, but given the slow recovery of the job qingli@ market and consumption growth, the