China＇s Transition Phase and Long-Term Development Path, Efficiency and Growth Rates.pdf

28 Trends China，sTransitionPhaseandLong· Term DevelopmentPath，Efficiency andGrowthRates YuanFuhua(袁富华)，ChenChangbing(陈昌兵)，ZhangPing(张平)，LiuXiahui(刘霞辉)andLu Mingtao(陆明涛) ChinaEconomicGrowthFrontierResearchProIectTeam．ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences．Bejiing,China Abstract：ThispaperexaminesthetransitionofgrowthstageChinaisaboutto experienceandthemainconclusionsareasfollows：fi)PhaseIofeconomicgrowth drivenbyinvestmentandexport losingthemomentumofefficiencyenhancementthrough interventionandthegrowthstage0厂efficiencyenhancementthroughstructuraladjustment iscomingtoanend． anizationandthedevelopmentofservicesectorwillinaugurate PhaseIIofstableeconomicgrowthcharacterizedbvstructuraloptimizationthrough efficiencyenhancement,f2)ThreeleadingfactorspromotingthetransitionfromPhaseIto PhaseHinclude．demographicchangesandtheemergenceofworkforceturningpoint,the reversionoffacotrelasticityparametersoflong-termgrowthfunctionandservice．oriented economicsturcture,f3)DevelopedprovincesandmunicipalitiesineastChinahavealready enteredintothechannelofeconomicdeceleration．Withfncreasingurbanizationrate． acceleratingservice—orientedstructureanddecliningdemographicdividendafter2016- China economicslowdownwouldbeinevitableiflaborproductiviytfailstoimprove． Keywords：potentialgrowth,efficiency,stabilizedslowdown,sturcturaladjustment JELClassifications：C13，L80，O10 1．Intr0ducti0n ThisDaperexam inesthetransitionof Correspondingauthor，YuanFuhua：fuhua — yuan@yahoo economicgrowthstagestobeexperiencedby com ．cn