不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力影响.doc

MPA专业学位论文 不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响 不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响 摘　要 人口老龄化是全球性问题，伴随着人口老龄化问题的愈演愈烈，辽宁省的城镇职工养老保险基金亦面临着巨大的收支压力，收支失衡已经显现。本研究以系统动力学理论为基础，借助AnyLogic 6.4.1软件预测辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金收支变化趋势，并探讨延迟退休年龄的各种政策选择对其支付能力的可能影响。研究发现，现行政策不变的情况下，养老保险基金到2024年基金累计余额将出现负值，到2054年基金缺口问题越来越严重，将达到-88919.71亿元。通过6项优化实验预测了不同退休年龄方案对辽宁省养老保险金支付能力的影响。分别选择从2015年和2020年开始，每2年延一岁，利用20年的时间将女性退休年龄延迟到60岁；在上述方案基础上，分别探讨了每2年和每3年延一岁，用10年或15年的时间，将男女退休年龄延迟到同为65岁，并保持不变。实验结果表明，上述方案均能起到减小养老金缺口的积极作用，其中。同时，研究发现，延迟退休年龄的方案不同，对养老金缺口的影响也就不同，延迟退休年龄的时间设定的越早，延迟速度越快，对缓解养老金的支付压力越有效。根据优化实验的预测结果，提出了从采取“小步渐进”方式，适度提高女职工退休年龄、采用弹性退休制度以及合理选择延迟退休年龄实施时机等几个方面的对策建议。 关键词：延迟退休年龄；系统动力学；职工基本养老保险基金 Research on the Different Effects of Delaying Retirement Age on the Ability to Pay the Basic Pension Insurance Fund of Liaoning Province Abstract Population aging is a global problem, along with an aging population growing, the basic pension insurance fund in Liaoning Province is also facing huge pressure to balance, and balance of payments imbalances have been revealed. This study based on system dynamics theory, with the aid of AnyLogic 6.4.1 to predict the trends of basic pension insurance fund in Liaoning Province, and discusses various policy options to delay retirement age may affect its ability to pay. Studies have found that if the current policy unchanged, the balance of endowment insurance fund in 2024 to fund the accumulative negative, and the fund gap problem will be more and more serious, in 2054, it will reach 8.891971 trillion. In this paper, 6 optimization experiments revealed that different retirement age has the different impact on the endowment insurance gold to pay ability of Liaoning Province. Choose starting in 2015 and 2020, respectively, each 2 years of age, with 20 years of time will delay retirement age to 60, and then respectively in each optimization experiment on the basis of above, respectively discusses the every 2 years and 3 years of age, with 10 years or 15 years of time, will delay the retir