汉江上游径流量变化趋势与周期统计分析.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 419-428 Published Online October 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.35051 Analysis of the Change Trend and Cycle Statistics of Runoff in the Upstream of Hanjiang River 1 2 3 4 2 Honggang Zhang , Pan Liu , Xiang Li , Jie Zhou , Hua Chen 1 Bureau of International Cooperation, Science Technology of The Yangtze River Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 2 Wuhan University, Wuhan 3 Bureau of Hydrology of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 4 University of California, Los Angeles, USA Email: zhg213@163.com th th th Received: Sep. 15 , 2014; revised: Sep. 29 , 2014; accepted: Oct. 13 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Continuous dry of the Hanjiang basin during 1990s has aroused concerns about security of the middle route project of south to north water diversion project. As a result, it is very important to analyze the change trend and cycle statistics of runoff series in the upstream of Hanjiang. Mann- Kendall, Spearman and Linear regression analyses were used to analyze the change trend of ru- noff series. It is shown that on the level of significance of 0.05, the runoff and precipitation trends were not significant. Wavelet analysis was used to analyze the cycle statistics. The result shows that runoff series has 7 to 10, and 20 to 25 years of the time scale of the cyclical change rule. Re- search shows that the gener