Natixis Weekly Commodities 17.3.2011英文资料.pdf

. 17 March 2011 / N 11 Chain reaction Contents Commodity markets are experiencing substantial dislocation caused by the desperate events in Japan over the last week. Amid the chaos, we try to elicit the main implications for energy and metal markets. Focus ….….. Chain reaction…..….3 Energy.…………………4 Amid heightened political tensions in Libya and the Middle East, the IEA is starting to Precious metals…….……………….7 consider the ramifications of an oil supply shock. Base metals...……..…….…………..9 Agricultural Commodities……..….13 Gold prices drop despite the heightened economic and political uncertainty, raising Strategies…………………………..16 interesting questions about investor positioning and motivation. Quantitative analysis……………...17 Technical analysis…………………18 Base metals are caught between a near-term slump in Japanese demand and the prospect of an eventual reconstruction boom. Agricultural prices were already slipping, with this week’s disruption to Japanese demand extending the recent price correction. FORECASTS