uncertainty in forest net present value estimations森林净现值估计的不确定性.pdf

Forests 2010, 1, 177-193; doi:10.3390/f1030177 OPEN ACCESS forests ISSN 1999-4907 /journal/forests Article Uncertainty in Forest Net Present Value Estimations Markus Holopainen 1,*, Antti Mäkinen 1, Jussi Rasinmäki 2, Kari Hyytiäinen 3, Saeed Bayazidi 1, 1 1 Mikko Vastaranta and Ilona Pietilä 1 Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Latokartanonkaari 7, 00014 Finland; E-Mails: antti.makinen@helsinki.fi (A.M.); saeed.bayazidi@helsinki.fi (S.B.); mikko.vastaranta@helsinki.fi (M.V.); ilona.pietila@helsinki.fi (I.P.) 2 Simosol Oy, Asema-aukio 2, 11130 Riihimäki, Finland; E-Mail: jussi.rasinmaki@simosol.fi (J.R.) 3 MTT, Economic Research, Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland; E-Mail: kari.hyytiainen@mtt.fi (K.H.) * Author to whom correspondence; E-Mail: markus.holopainen@helsinki.fi; Tel.: +358-50-380 4984; Fax: +358-9-191 58100. Received: 9 August 2010; in revised form: 31 August 2010 / Accepted: 10 September 2010/ Published: 27 September 2010 Abstract: Uncertainty related to inventory data, growth models and timber price fluctuation was investigated in the assessment of forest property net present value (NPV). The degree of uncertainty associated with inventory data was obtained from previous area-based airborne laser scanning (ALS) inventory studies. The study was performed, applying the Monte Carlo simulation, using stand-level growth and yield projection models