3、极值分布特征 - 河海期刊网.doc

北太平洋海浪特征分析 诸裕良，徐秀枝 （河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院，江苏 南京 210098） 摘要：利用)提供的1979年~2014年逐6h的ERA-Interim有效波高和风速数据，分析近36年北太平洋海浪场的变化特征，为海洋水文保障、海洋工程等提供参考。结果表明：有效波高EOF分解的第一模态呈同相位分布，该模态与太平洋十年涛动指数(PDO)和厄尔尼诺事件(ENSO)呈显著的遥相关，因此可以通过这些气候因子的变化来预测有效波高的年代际变化。第二模态表明北太平洋西部海域的有效波高有显著的递增趋势，而东部海域则逐渐减小。第三模态以45°N为界，西风带呈现高低纬反相的双涡型分布，并有显著的2.5a左右的年际变化周期。北太平洋海域有效波高和风速重现期极值的大值区位于西风带，重现期越长，日本岛南部海域风速加强越显著，加强的极值区延伸到中国的东海甚至是菲律宾半岛的东部海岸。重现期极值计算可为目前兴起的深海操作提供一定的量化指导。 关键词：ERA-Interim；北太平洋；有效波高；风速重现期 中文分类号：P73 文献标志码：A 文章编号：of wave characteristics in the North Pacific ZHU Yuliang ,XU Xiuzhi (College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China) Abstract: By using newly ERA-Interim sea surface wind field and wave field data from1979 to 2014 developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the wave characteristics in the North Pacific Ocean were analyzed. The result shows that, the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of significant wave height (Hs) presents in-phase change rules, which is teleconnected with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second mode shows that Hs in the west region of the North Pacific presents an obvious increasing trend, while that Hs in the east region, is in a gradually decreasing trend. The third mode mainly demonstrates as double-eddy type distribution characteristics in the westerlies. The maximum extreme value of return period of Hs and winds appear in the westerlies. The longer return period is, at the south of Japan Island, the more obviously the wind speed Increases. The return period of extremum of Hs and wind speed can provide certain guidance for construction. Keywords: ERA-Interim, the North Pacific, Significant wave height, Wind speed, Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, Extreme values 在海洋工程中，海浪是最活跃、最重要的动力要素海洋自然灾害人民生命财产的安全2]等人整理北大西洋的观测数据资料，分析发现北大西洋海域可能从五十年代起有效波高就开始以一定的速度在增加；张弦等人[3]利用1950—1995年共46年的南印度洋船舶气象报资料，分析研究了南印度洋的海浪要素。但是 收稿日期：2016-3-2