全球银行业的前景如何.pdf

b a n k i n g j a n u a r y 2 0 0 8 What’s in store for global banking Banking around the world may now be passing through a major cyclical correction, but McKinsey research suggests that the industry’s revenues and profits will double by 2016. Miklos Dietz, Robert Reibestein, and Cornelius Walter Article Global banking may be passing through a major cyclical correction at the end of 2007, but new at a McKinsey research suggests that in the longer term the industry’s revenues and profits— glance poised to continue growing faster than the rate of GDP growth—will double by 2016. The historical part of the analysis, which examines global data from 2000 to 2006, reveals a rich mosaic of regional, national, and product diversity. There is little global convergence: different factors seem to drive different markets, which have surprisingly varied structures and uneven growth patterns. In 2016, the market capitalization of banks will likely be $12 trillion higher than it is today. As consolidation in the sector accelerates, winners will be able to outmaneuver their competitors by developing a deep, bottom-up understanding of the idiosyncrasies of markets and by understanding the vital importance of being in the right place at the right time. 2 With the midsummer credit crunch taking its toll, 2007 turned into a bleak year for the world’s big financial institutions, and 2008 may not be much better. As executives respond to the immediate pressures, however, they should maintain a clear perspective on the long-term outlook, which in our view is considerably brighter. Despite the current correction, we believe that during the