莆田市降水量时空演变规律分析.doc

莆田市降水量时空演变规律分析 　　摘要：基于莆田市各站点降水量资料，采用MannKendall秩次相关法、MannKendall突变检验法以及Morlet小波分析法等，从空间分布、变化趋势、突变性以及周期性等方面系统剖析了57年来莆田市及各分区降水的时空演变规律。结果表明：（1）莆田市年降水量空间上呈现出由东南沿海向西北山区逐渐递增的分布规律，57年来绝大部分地区年降水呈不显著增加趋势；（2）降水年内分配不均，而年际变化相对稳定，莆田市及各区年降水大致经历了多雨少雨交替的5个阶段，且年降水量在1996年-1998年和2003年-2004年间表现出突变性；（3）莆田市及各区年降水均具有3 a、8 a、12 a、28 a的主周期，除忠门站的第一主周期为22 a外，其余第一主周期均为28 a。 　　关键词：降水；时空变化；MannKendall突变检验；小波分析；莆田市 　　中图分类号：P426.6 文献标志码：A 文章编号2015 　　Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Putian City 　　LIU Niu1，2，ZHANG Xiane1 ，QIU Yaqin2，LIU Ning2，3，DING Xiangyi2 　　（1.College of Environmental and Municipal Engineering，North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power， 　　Zhengzhou 450011，China；2.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of the River Basin Water Cycle， 　　Beijing 100038，China；3.College of Urban and Rural Construction，Agricultural University of Hebei， 　　Baoding 071000，China） 　　Abstract：Based on the precipitation data of each weather station in Putian City，the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation were systematically analyzed from the aspects of spatial distribution，variation trend，mutation and periodicity using the methods of MannKendall rank correlation method，MannKendall mutation testt，and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results showed that （1） the spatial distribution of annual precipitation shows an increasing tendency from the southeastern coast to the northwestern mountains in Putian，and precipitation in most of the area has an insignificantly increasing trend in the past 57 years；（2） the interannual precipitation distribution is not uniform while annual precipitation is relatively stable，annual precipitation shows five alternative stages with more rain and less rain in each district of Putian，and annual precipitation shows a mutation from 1996 to 1998 and from 2003 to 2004；and （3） annual precipitation in each district of Putian shows primary periodicities of 3 years，8 years，12 years，and 28 years，and the firs