投资者信心对中国股市的影响.doc

投资者信心对中国股市的影响 摘 要 本文从行文金融学的角度去分析我国股市10多年的历程中，稳定并且是高速发展的中国经济，伴随的却是跌宕起伏的中国股市。不稳定的政策导向，不健全的体制法规，监管不严的媒体报道，最后导致了投资者没有一个稳定平和的心态投身股市，追涨杀跌现象十分严重，这从一个侧面反应了投资者存在信心过度膨胀和信心不足的情况，并对其投资股市的行为产生了一定的影响。本文旨在通过数据来说明投资者信心与股市的关系。 本文通过A股流通市值，投资者开户数，市盈率这些数据指标较好的模拟了投资者信心这一心理学概念指标，然后由线性回归模型进行检验，证实了投资者信心与股市兴衰的关系。 最后提出稳定投资者预期，振奋投资者信心等建议来进一步完善中国股市。 关键词：投资者信心；行为金融，中国股市 Abstract This article reads from the perspective of finance of Chinas stock market to more than 10 years of history, is stable and rapid development of Chinas economy, it is accompanied by the ups and downs of Chinas stock market. Instability in the policy orientation, not a sound system and regulations, strictly control the media, leading to the investors without a stable peace of mind to join the stock market, pursues rises kills falls a very serious problem, this response from one side of the existing investors Confidence in the transition of the expansion and a lack of confidence, and the conduct of its stock market investments have a certain impact. This paper aims to investors through the data to illustrate the relationship between confidence and the stock market.  Through the circulation market value of A shares, investors to open an account number, price-earnings ratio of these indicators of good data to simulate the psychology of investors confidence in the concept of indicators, and then by the linear regression model testing, confirmed the confidence of investors and the stock market rise and fall Relations.  Finally, investors expected stability, boost the confidence of investors proposed to further improve Chinas stock market. Key words: the confidence of investors; behavioral finance, the Chinese stock market 目 录 一、引 言 6 二、传统金融学与行为金融学的概述 6 （一）传统金融学理论 6 （二）行为金融学理论 3 （三）行为金融学在股市的应用 4 三、投资者信心对中国股市兴衰的实证研究 6 （一）中国股市现状的行为金融学分析 6 （二）中国股市投资者信心的衡量 8 （三）投资者信心对中国股市兴衰的实证研究 9 四、结论和建议 10 （一）树立稳定市场，不盲目杀跌的典范 11 （二）稳定投资者对政策的预期 11 （三）做好行为投资者教育，理性面对投资 12 （四）规范市场舆论