summer hot snaps and winter conditions modelling white syndrome outbreaks on great barrier reef corals夏季热拍,冬季条件造型白色综合症爆发在大堡礁珊瑚.pdf

Summer Hot Snaps and Winter Conditions: Modelling White Syndrome Outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef Corals 1,2 3 2 4 3 5 Scott F. Heron *, Bette L. Willis , William J. Skirving , C. Mark Eakin , Cathie A. Page , Ian R. Miller 1 Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 2 Physics Department and Marine Geophysical Laboratory, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 3 School of Marine and Tropical Biology and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4 Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America, 5 Long Term Monitoring Program, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia Abstract Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r2 = 0.953) between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap) and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction