战略和互联网的发展趋势.ppt

STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS E-COMMERCE IS DEAD TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you can’t generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I don’t think anyone will survive. They are all gone.” THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794 THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example  EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in % of Revenues ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTS RENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEAD A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS! A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS! -*- RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm Real Tech Conference Peter Stanger “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” F, April 2000 “Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes” Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.” Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson Travelocity B Expedia D E Priceline eBay Amazon $123B Webvan eBay Amazon All Other $11.4B 1860 - 1890 1895 - 1925 120 100 80 40 60 20 0 1770 1780 1775 Index Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton England 1770-83 Price of the Model T touring car 1908-20 1910 1915 1920 1985 1990 1995 Price of CPU computing power $/ MIPS 1982-95 Lower processing costs ... … with increased throughput ... Fiber capacity Time 105 0 104 103 102 … and po