AnnAGNPS模型在大沽河典型小流域适用性检验-农业工程学报.DOC

基于AnnAGNPS模型的农业非点源污染模拟( 邹桂红1(，崔建勇2( （1.中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院，青岛 266003； 2. 中国石油大学地球资源与信息学院 ，东营 257061） 摘要：本文以大沽河典型小流域为研究区，借助GIS和相关资料率定参数，完成模型数据库的建立。在此基础上，采用流域出口2001～2002年径流量、泥沙和总氮监测数据优化参数、校准和验证模型，分析AnnAGNPS模型在大沽河典型小流域应用的可行性。2000～2001年，地表径流的年均模拟偏差分别为12.7%和7%，丰水期的月模拟偏差都在±30%以内，日模拟值与实测值相关系数分别是0.98和0.91，模拟结果理想；年均泥沙输出模拟误差分别为19.1％和15%，月均泥沙估算的相关系数分别为0.78和0.73，模拟结果基本可接受；年均模拟误差为50%左右，月均估计及降雨场次模拟的相关系数分别低于0.7和0.6，总氮污染负荷估算有很大的不确定性。结果表明，如何提高模型的营养盐模拟精度将是未来AnnAGNPS模型在大沽河流域应用的前提与基础。本研究成果对于AnnAGNPS模型在国内的应用和推广，具有很好的示范性， 并为大沽河全流域分布式水文模型的构建奠定了基础。 关键词: 非点源 AnnAGNPS模型 大沽河典型小流域 适用性 Simulation of agricultural non-point pollution based on AnnAGNPS model ZOU Gui-hong1,Cui Jian-yong2 (1.Collage of environmental science and engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao China,266003 2. College of Earth Resources and Information，China University of Petroleum, Dongying China,257061) : GIS(Geographic Information System) was integrated with AnnAGNPS(Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Model),which was used to input, analyze, and visualize spatial data that agricultural Non-point source pollution concerned. On this basis, the performance of AnnAGNPS, in simulating runoff ,silt and total nitrogen in typical sub-watersheds of Dagu catchment was evaluated. The model was calibrated and validated using observed stream flow ,sediment load and total nitrogen data during 2000 and 2001in sub-watersheds outlet. The annually relative error of surface runoff was separately 12.7% and 7%, the difference during the wet months was under 30%,and R2 of 0.98 and 0.91 was separately for event-based runoff, which showed the model performed well for runoff simulation. Moderate accuracy of prediction for sediment was obtained with annually relative error of 19.1% and 15%,and R2 of 0.78 and 0.73 during calibration and validation. As the relative error of 50% for annual output of total nitrogen, however, AnnAGNPS failed to calculate the total nitrogen with R2 separately down to 0.7 and 0.6 for monthly and daily simulat