毕业论文--我国货币政策变动对股票市场价格影响的回归分析【毕业论文】.doc

本 科 毕 业 论 文 我国货币政策变动对股票市场价格影响的回归分析 The Regression Analysis on the Effect of Monetary Policy Changes on the Stock Prices 学 院： 商学院 专业班级： 金融学 金融071 学生姓名： 李艳秋 学 号： 060717111 指导教师： 李平（讲师） 2011 年 6 月 毕业论文中文摘要 我国货币政策变动对股票市场价格影响的回归分析 摘 要：股票市场是国民经济的“晴雨表”，综合反映了国民经济运行的各个方面，货币政策工具是货币当局调控宏观经济运行的重要手段。随着我国股票市场机制的不断完善，货币政策通过其传导机制对股价的影响日益明显，货币政策变动对股票市场价格的影响成为近年来众多学者关注的热点话题之一。利率政策与法定存款准备金率政策是我国央行重要的货币政策工具，传统理论认为利率及法定存款准备金率的调整反向影响股价，但根据近年来我国央行对二者的调整记录及上证综合指数的变动情况来看，大部分数据与传统理论是背离的。因此，研究我国货币政策变动对股价的准确影响是必要的。本文根据选取的样本数据分别建立以法定存款准备金率、存款基准利率为自变量、以上证综合指数为因变量的一元线性回归模型，运用Eviews软件做回归分析，得出我国货币政策变动对股价影响的结论。 关键词：货币政策；股票市场价格；回归分析；利率；法定存款准备金率 毕业论文外文摘要 The Regression Analysis on the Effect of Monetary Policy Changes on the Stock Prices Abstract: National stock market is a barometer,and it reflects all aspects of the national economy comprehensively.The monetary policy tools are the important methods of macroeconomic control.As Chinas stock market continues to improve the mechanism,transmission mechanism of monetary policy through its impact on stock prices has become increasingly evident,monetary policy changes on the stock market prices in recent years has become one of the hot topics of many scholars.Interest rate policy and the statutory deposit reserve ratio of central bank policy are the important monetary policy tools.Traditional theory holds that the interest rate and the statutory deposit reserve ratio and stock price changes in the opposite direction.However, according to the Bank of China in recent years,the adjustment of the two records and the Shanghai Composite Index,most of the data deviates from the traditional theory. Therefore,it is necessary to study the effect of monetary policy changes on the stock prices.According to the selected sample data, this