基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通应急系统可靠性分析.pdf

Open Journal of Transportation Technologies 交通技术, 2014, 3, 102-109 Published Online July 2014 in Hans. /journal/ojtt /10.12677/ojtt.2014.34015 Research on Reliability Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Emergency System Based on Bayesian Network Xiaoyan Fan School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou Email: thelmacxh@163.com th th th Received: May 29 , 2014; revised: Jun. 28 , 2014; accepted: Jul. 6 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by author and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Urban rail transit emergency problem is very complicated, which is affected by many uncertain factors. In view of this, considering the advantages of Bayesian network in solving uncertainty problems, through the analysis of reliability of city track traffic emergency system evaluation in- dex system, this paper has established the Bayesian model to evaluate the reliability of city rail transit emergency system. Finally, taking a subway as an example, the reliability of emergency system model is established based on Bayesian network and the calculation is carried out by using Bayesian’s reasoning and BayesiaLab tools. By analyzing the calculation results, some measures of improving reliability of the subway emergency system are given. Keywords Urban Rail Transit Emergency System, Reliability, Bayesian Network 基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通应急系统 可靠性分析 范晓燕 兰州交通大学交通运输学院，兰州 Email: thelmacxh@163.com 102 基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通应急系统可靠性