设计消费者需要的年金产品（PPT38）.ppt

Designing annuity products for consumers needs Presented by Mike WadsworthPartner, Watson Wyatt mike.wadsworth@ May 2003 Agenda Options for generating lifetime income Consumer needs Investing for life Managing survival A new model I dont want to achieve immortality through my work - I want to achieve it by not dying Woody Allen People will soon live twice as long as today, and have the potential to live for 1200 years John Harris, Scientist Member of UK Human Genetics Commission as reported Sunday Times, 25 June 2000 Funeral firm hit by 29% profit fall Not enough people are dying in the US, according to Service Corporation International, the worlds largest funeral services company Times, 2 October 1999 Scale of opportunitiesPeople over 65 Annuity versus bond yield Options for retirement income Traditional annuitiesSome important questions How much do the guarantees cost? How valuable are they to customers? early in retirement/later in retirement? according to other assets? How will lifestyles and needs change in retirement? Will customers change their minds over time? Key issues for designThe Pensioner Choice (investment) Flexibility (income) Protection (survival) Communication (trade offs) Fail safe A lifetime asset allocation modelTraditional A lifetime asset allocation modelProposed Effect of investment growth onsupportable income - males Planning retirement income The consumer problem is ..... How long will I live? Lifespan is a distribution not an expectation Distribution of deathsRetirement at age 60 Distribution of deaths by age now Distribution of deaths by age now Standard deviation of deaths, asa proportion of life expectancy Progression of income:spreading fund over future life expectation Progression of income - annuitised fund versusnon-annuitised fund Supplier view of mortality guarantees Mortality improving How fast 1% pa? 2% pa? 3% pa? In future? Scope to review? Guarantees are (too) expensive? Mortality drift -uncertain fut