2016美赛E题一等奖论文.pdf

Forofficeuseonly TeamControlNumber Forofficeuseonly T1 ________________ 47512 F1 ________________ T2 ________________ F2 ________________ T3 ________________ ProblemChosen F3 ________________ T4 ________________ E F4 ________________ 2016 MCM/ICM SummarySheet BalancingsupplyandDemand:CombatagainstWaterScarcity Solvingworld water problem is an urgent task facing any government, institution and individual. Ourpaperconsistsoffourparts:Thefirstpartistofigureouttheindexwhichrepresents theabilityofoneregiontomeetitswaterdemand.Thesecondpartfocusesonfindingoutthe deep causes of water scarcity in Xinjiang (China). In the third part, we forecast the water situation in Xinjiang in 15 years and analyze the influence on citizens’ life. Finally, we design a macro intervention plan specifically for Xinjiang to relieve the water stress. We carefullyanalyzetheinfluenceofthisplanonlocalwatersituationandsurroundingareas. Firstly, we define Z as the index measuring the ability of oneregion to meet itswater demand.ThevalueofIndexZisdeterminedby sixteenfactorsfromfourcategories,suchas long-term precipitation and agricultural areas. We employ AHP to calculate the weight of eachcategory. Thenweutilize the PCAto figureouttheir final score,multiplythese scores by their weight to get the value of the index Z. Considering the dynamic nature of these factors, we