我国短期资本流动影响因素分析.docx

经典专科、本科、硕博、研究生、期刊毕业论文 仅供参考 精心整理 仅供参考 勿用作商业用途 我国短期资本流动影响因素分析 中文摘要 随着经济全球化、金融一体化的逐步推进与发展,信息技术的不断更新换代,短期国际资本无论从规模上还是流动渠道和流动速度上,都有了显著的提升。国际资本的流入给一国带来稀缺的资金及管理技术,但如果该国或者国际经济形势发生重大变化,国际资本的流动“停止”或“逆转”可能会给该国经济造成巨大的冲击。因此在合理引导短期国际资本发展本国经济的同时，防止短期资本的负面影响也十分重要。本文致力于研究影响我国短期资本流动的主要因素，并对2002-2017年的短期资本流动的季度数据进行实证分析，主要影响因素为：汇率、利差、经济基本面与投资报酬率。因为原始变量量化的困难，所以寻找了几个替代变量来进行统计研究，它们分别是：人民币实际有效汇率、中美基准利率之差、经济景气指数与三个月中期国债收益率的季度数据。结果表明利差与投资报酬率起着比较显著的影响作用，其他两个因素的解释意义有所欠缺，除此之外还有不可量化的心理预期与国家政策等影响因素，这些都不可忽视。由于短期资本的可逆性与危害性，在此结论的基础上,结合中国短期国际资本流动的现状本文提出了一系列具有针对性的以及现实可操作性的政策建议。 关键词：短期资本 利差 汇率 投资报酬率 经济基本面 ABSTRACT Along with the economic globalization, financial integration gradually with the development of information technology constantly updated, no matter from the scale of short-term international capital or flow channel and flow velocity, there were significant improvement. International capital inflows for a countrys scarce capital and management technology, but if the country or the international economic situation has greatly changed, the flow of international capital stop or reverse may bring a tremendous impact on the countrys economy. Therefore, it is very important to prevent the negative impact of short-term capital while reasonably guiding short-term international capital to develop domestic economy. Dedicated to the study in this paper the main factors influencing the short-term capital flows in our country, and from 2002 to 2017, short-term capital flows quarterly data to carry on the empirical analysis, the main influence factors for: exchange rates, spreads and economic fundamentals and investment return rate. Because the original variable quantitative difficulties, so to find several alternative for studying the statistical variable, they respectively are: the difference between the RMB real effective exchange rate, the benchmark interest rate of China and the United States three months, the economic climate index and medium-term bond yields quarterly data. Results show that sp