罗兰贝格关于中国加入WTO的分析报告（英文PPT61页）.ppt

Roland Berger – Strategy Consultants presentation-CEMS-x Strategic Impact of China’s entry into the WTO On Chinese and Foreign Companies Content Page A. The macroeconomic impact of China’s WTO entry 3 B. Automotive 11 C. Apparel Textile 22 D. Pharmaceuticals 36 E. Banking 42 F. Securities and Asset Management 48 G. Insurances 52 A.The macroeconomic impact of China’s WTO entry Already the tariffs have come down considerably in the last decade but they still differ strongly between industries The impact of China’s WTO entry has a macroeconomic as well as industry-specific microeconomic impact Trading short term pain against long term gain is a walk on the wire The macroeconomic impact of China’s accession to the WTO will be especially strong in apparel, automobiles and electronics With some dramatic consequences for employment (1) With some dramatic consequences for employment (2) B.Automotive In the year 2010 China will be the largest truck market in Asia and passenger car demand will have grown to 1.6m cars Small scale production is a mayor reason for the low efficiency and profitability of Chinas car manufactures This development trend has been anticipated by carmakers through new product launches The average capacity utilization is below 50%, and an additional capacity build-up is planned The car manufacturers will reconsider their distribution and maintenance network strategy The component manufacturers and part suppliers will feel the pressure most C.Apparel Textile The WTO agreement will open the developed markets to apparel and textile imports from China Based on production cost China is competitive on a global scale China has based on its strengths — the potential to increase its market share in Europe The impact of the WTO agreement differs strongly between the different market participants The advantage of state-owned trading companies in getting cheaper quota will gradually disappear Apparel export is still the most important bus