外盘资料.ppt

Freight Outlook Bleak macro outlook but no double dip … OECD austerity amidst unemployment AND slowing CHINA We discard demand crisis scenario that “breaks” the market below marginal cost Lack of strong mineral demand momentum beyond seasonal pre-winter restocking needs Backhaul business remains extremely scarce … and has opened up recurrent full china ballast execution This is recurrently priced in nearby carry and redundant risk of over-covering through short period fixtures MARKET IS STRUCTURALLY OVERTONNAGED FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHS PMAX MARKET IS RANGEBOUND (18K – 24K) AND MORE INSULATED FROM CAPES WILD MOVES MARKET CYCLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHORT … 2-3 DAYS PUSHES EXECUTION VOLATILITY IS GREATER THAN IN 03-08 …. ON AVERAGE 2.4% DAILY MOVES ON SPOT SPOT MARKET REMAINS RANGEBOUND (15K-20K) THROUGHOUT 2011: USG-NPRC $47-55 RANGE OR SANTOS-NPRC $41-48 OR UP+BB-NPRC $47-54 NEARBY CURVES RECURRENTLY DEVELOPS INTO CARRY WHILE BACK END INVERSE NARROWS BUT STILL ALWAYS ABOVE SPOT MARGINAL REPLACEMENT (13K/14K FOR NEWBUILD) WHICH WILL POSTPONE MARKET RECOVER FURTHER AS WE DON’T SEE MAJOR SCRAPPING CAMPAIGN AND ORDERBOOK CONTRACTING CONTINUES …. DOOMED TO BE RANGEBOUND FRONTHAUL PREMIUM WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% SMAX WILL INCREASINGLY PRICE IN PMAX BUSINESS 0*  外盘豆类资料 US Balance Sheet ’11/12 Production Economics (Illinois) Poor Corn on Corn yield this past summer in Illinois/Iowa make a convincing argument against continuous corn planting. Compared to a annual corn/bean rotation a continuous corn on corn planting schedule gives up nearly 50% of expected revenue. ’11/12 US Forecasted Acreage YOY Bean acreage increase of 250k acres YOY Corn acreage increase of 700k acres Argentine Balance Sheet Argentine ’11/12 Bean Crop Acreage will remain unchanged versus last season, at 18.7 million hectares. About 80% will be first soybeans and 20% will be double-cropped (after wheat or barley) About 53 % is already planted, in line with last season. Estimated yield is 2,6 ton