城市规划人口规模预测问题的反思与改进——基于38个重点城市七普人口与规划人口的比较分析.pdf
78|城市研究
城市规划人口规模预测问题的反思与改进*
——基于38个重点城市七普人口与规划人口的比较分析
ReflectionandImprovementonthePredictionofUrbanPlanningPopulation
Size:BasedontheComparisonBetweentheSeventhNationalCensusandthePlanning
Populationin38KeyCities
王伟欧阳鹏蒋雅婷陈懿慧WANGWei,OUYANGPeng,JIANGYating,CHENYihui
摘要规划人口规模预测作为城市总体规划的重要编制内容，影响着城市资源承载、土地开发、公共服务供给和基础设施配置
的可持续性。通过对38座重点城市总体规划的人口规划值与七普人口实际值差距比较分析，发现2020年规划人口和实际
人口呈现不同规模等级城市的差异化系统性偏离状况，进而对其成因展开剖析，最后面向新时期国土空间规划编制和
实施工作，提出需要正确定位规划人口预测的作用，加强从技术预测逻辑到政策调控逻辑的转变，创新人口类型认知概
念体系、多情景推演模型方法和动态精准响应机制，加强规划全生命周期弹性应对等建议，以期更好地提升国土空间治
理现代化水平。
AbstractAsanimportantpartofurbanmasterplanning,planningpopulationsizepredictionaffectsthesustainabilityofurbanresource
capacity,landdevelopment,publicservicesupplyandinfrastructureconfiguration.Bycomparingtheplanningpopulation
oftheurbanmasterplanningof38citieswiththeactualpopulationoftheSeventhCensus,thisstudyfindsthatthereisa
differentiatedandsystematicdeviationbetweentheplanningpopulationandtheactualpopulationwithdifferentscalesand
levelsin2020,thenthedeepcausesofsystematicdeviationareanalyzed.Finally,theimprovementsuggestionsareput
forwardforthepreparation,implementationandmanagementofterritorialspatialmasterplanninginthenewera,including
correctlypositioningtheroleofplanningpopulationprediction,transformingfromthelogicoftechnicalpredictiontopolicy
regulation,innovatingtheconceptualsystemofpopulationtypecognition,themethodofmulti-scenariodeductionmodel
andthedynamicandaccurateresponsemechanism,aswellasstrengtheningtheflexibleresponsetothewholelifecycleof
planning.
关键词人口规模；人口预测；总体规划；城市
Keywordspopulationsize;populationprediction;masterplanning;city
文章编号16